US election: Live blog

Keep up to date with the latest comments on the US election from ANU experts.
9 November 2016

WILL TRUMP STEP BACK FROM CAMPAIGN COMMITMENTS?

3PM FRIDAY 11 NOVEMBER

Professor John Hewson of the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy says he expects Trump to deliver of his campaign commitments.

"There is considerable global confusion, and some concern, as to just how Trump will govern. And how well. There are significant checks and balances in the US political system when it comes to the exercise of power, especially relative to the Congress, in relation to domestic policies. But the President's role as Commander-in-Chief is much less constrained.

"Just which of the myriad of "promises and commitments" will he stick with, and which will he jettison? Will he actually build "the wall," resort to tariff protection, tear up trade deals, ban Muslim and other immigrants, dramatically cut taxes, build all those roads, bridges and other infrastructure, step back from global defence, security and climate engagements, and a veritable host of others? Some believe now that he has won, he will step back from much of this. However, I think this view misses the very point of his victory.

"He ran a consistent and focused "anti-establishment" campaign - broadly, anti-globalisation, anti-freer trade, anti-immigration, and anti-Washington. His voters see him as a "game changer". They expect him to deliver. I believe he will do his utmost to do so."

Full story here.

 

GLOBAL LEADERS CAN TRUMP-PROOF THE PARIS AGREEMENT

1PM FRIDAY 11 NOVEMBER

The United States is likely to drop out of the Paris Agreement or the overall global climate convention, but new research from The Australian National University (ANU) suggests a Trump Presidency could create new opportunities to reduce carbon emissions.

Dr Luke Kemp from ANU said Donald Trump's victory at the US election could be the moment that keeping global warming under 2 degrees Celsius became unachievable.

"A future President Trump can, and likely will, drop out of the Paris Agreement. Direct withdrawal will take four years," said Dr Kemp from the ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society.

"Trump could instead drop out from the overall climate convention. That would only take one year and would result in automatic withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

The US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, or blatantly missing its climate targets, could be near fatal for a deal which relies on being global, but Dr Kemp said a Trump Presidency could also create opportunities for governments internationally to tackle climate change.

Read the full story.

 

HISTORICALLY INFORMED AND PREPARED FOR THE UNEXPECTED

10:45AM FRIDAY 11 NOVEMBER

Post-colonial International Relations expert Dr April Biccum looks to the past for insight into the world's future under a Trump US presidency.

"The prevailing message from the media and political leaders in the fallout from the recent Trump win has been a measured one, the underlying subtext appears to be: 'let's not overreact, it still could be business as usual', but to my view, it's the assumption of normalcy, path dependency, 'business as usual' that answers in part for why so many scholars and commentators got their predictions so terribly wrong. 

"We have the methods, we have the data, we can trust the opinion polls, there is a certainty to the social order as we find it. 

"It's very tempting to draw historical parallel going back to Europe from the 1880s and I agree we shouldn't be quick to presume that history will repeat itself but we also should be very mindful that the Trump election is not just about populism, not just about the future of America's role in the world, not just about the future of climate governance, it's also intimately tied up with America's domestic race, gender and class politics, divisions which are historically embedded and indivisible from one another, but which have been exacerbated by the Global Financial Crisis and the rising tide of nationalism globally. 

"What the Trump win represents, along with Brexit and electoral gains of the far right and left in Europe and elsewhere, is a significant shift in the terrain of partisan politics. The world has undergone drastic change in the past, social scientists shouldn't presume that our well-worn variables and methods will always accommodate the world that we study.  Our analysis needs to be historically informed and prepared for the unexpected."

 

FLASHBACK: ANU CONFERENCE SPEAKER EXPLAINS TRUMP BACK IN JUNE

9:00AM FRIDAY 11 NOVEMBER

Speaking in June during the ANU Crawford Australian Leadership Forum former CNN political analysts Bill Schneider gives an incredibly accurate view of why Trump appeals to the American people.

"Trump is the un-Obama. This is not unusual in American politics, when Americans are for any reason unsatisfied with the performance of any president, they look for someone who is completely the opposite.

"That's how Obama got elected, he was the un-Bush."

See the full video above or here.

 

I'LL TAKE THAT AS A COMMENT

8:15AM FRIDAY 11 NOVEMBER

The quality of US election analysis has been highlighted by the exciting news that Dr Jennifer Hunt of the ANU National Security College has been invited to join the ABC QandA panel on Monday 14 November. Details here - http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/

 

AUSTRALIA SIGNS ON TO PARIS AGREEMENT

5.05 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Frank Jotzo, deputy director of the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy has told the Brisbane Times ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement will give Australia a stronger position in the climate talks in Morocco.

"The day after Donald Trump's election, it sends a signal that one of the United States' strongest allies remains committed to the UN climate change process."

 

DID BERNIE SANDERS HAVE A BETTER APPROACH?

4.25 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Luke Hennessy of the ANU School of Politics and International Relations says Hillary Clinton may have done better with Bernie Sanders' approach.

"What is clear is that Bernie Sanders will feel vindicated by this result.

"He has consistently focused on issues of economic hardship and injustice, recently tweeting that 'our job is to reach out to Trump voters to tell them that we're going to create an economy that works for all of us, not just a few.'

"This is in stark contrast to Hilary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" approach."

 

IS THE POLITICAL CELEBRITY ENDORESEMENT DEAD?

4.15 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Dr Andrew Hughes of the Research School of Management says Trump has changed the nature of political campaigning.

"Donald Trump's victory demonstrates that style over substance is becoming the new norm in political campaigning. Keeping messaging simple in an information heavy age was one of the key reasons for Trump's win.

"Trust, believability and expectation were big differences between Trump and Clinton. Celebrity endorsement may finally be dead when it comes to political campaigning as voters seek out authentic over manufactured."

 

A VICTORY FOR MISOGYNY

3.30 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Dr Sharon Bessell, Director of the Children's Policy Centre in Crawford School of Public Policy, tells Policy Forum that Trump's presidency is a win for misogyny.

"Since the 1970s the focus of global strategies to correct gross gender disparity in politics has been to increase the numbers of women in parliament. Quotas, inclusive electoral systems, and training for female candidates have all been used to address the disturbingly intractable gender disparity in decision-making bodies - from local councils to national parliaments. In many parts of the world, women's political representation has slowly - often painfully - increased.

"Today we see a new phenomenon. Not 'simply' low numerical representation, but the democratic election of a United States president who has espoused an alarmingly sexist set of values. If in 2008, Obama campaigned on a message of hope, Trump has campaigned on a platform of hatred. Hatred and fear."

 

AMERICA LIKELY TO PULL OUT OF PARIS AGREEMENT

3.45 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Dr Luke Kemp, lecturer at the ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society, says Trump is lilely to find a way out of the Paris Climate Agreement.

"A future President Trump can, and likely will, drop-out of the Paris Climate Agreement. Direct withdrawal will take four years. Trump could instead drop-out from the overall climate convention. That would only take one year and would result in automatic withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

"The US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, or blatantly missing its climate targets, could be near fatal for a deal which relies on being global.

"A Trump presidency will also create opportunities. A protectionist Trump administration could bring the idea of climate trade measures back to the table. The Paris Agreement could be amended to have trade-measures against countries who are not part of the deal. Alternatively, the EU may be pushed by Trump's trade policies towards imposing a carbon price on imports (carbon border tax adjustments). Such actions will be more beneficial for the climate than the current Paris Agreement ever could have been."

 

FUTURE WORLDS

2.45 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Associate Professor Matthew Sussex of the ANU National Security College discusses the potential outcomes of two scenarios: Trump pursues his agenda, or is forced to toe the line.

"Following his astonishing win in the US Presidential election, commentary on security in the age of Donald Trump is already breaking into two camps. Some think that the realities of office will force him to moderate his views and produce a more sober foreign and security policy that may be different in tone, but nonetheless functionally consistent with that of the Obama administration. Others believe it is a true nightmare scenario, with the US effectively committing suicide as the global leader.

"The reality is likely to be somewhere in the middle. But even if Trump pursues only half the nativist and exceptionalist agenda he has promised, this is likely to be the biggest change in global and regional security since the end of the Second World War. America's NATO allies, especially in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, are intensely nervous. Russia is triumphal. And Australia and its regional friends and partners are frantically preparing for a region that is much more tense, and much more insecure, than the one they woke up in only a day ago.

"There is plenty to suggest that Trump himself will be hard to restrain, either from within the US, or outside it. In proving all the doubters wrong, he will trust himself over his advisers. And those he does appoint to key roles will be filling a vacuum left by those who said they would never work with Trump. For foreign powers, getting access to him is likely to be difficult, and he will expect more from them, and do less, than any President in recent history."

 

THE FUTURE OF TRADE IN ASIA-PACIFIC

1.00 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Dr Darren J. Lim of the ANU School of Politics and International Relations says a Trump presidency may lead to a trade-war with China if Congress can't rein him in.

"The future of trade in the Asia-Pacific under a Trump Presidency is defined primarily by uncertainty.

"Trump made hostility to trade and globalisation a central platform of his campaign, and it seems clear that his core supporters reject the idea that trade agreements bring net benefits to the American economy.

"Following through on this platform would likely see the U.S. Senate refuse to ratify the TPP and, in a worst-case scenario, China be classified as a currency manipulator triggering an all-out trade-war.

"However, there are significant business interests in the United States who understand the value of Asia-Pacific trade, and they have allies in the U.S. Congress.

"There will therefore be pressure from the pro-trade wing of the Republican party for Trump to exercise restraint and caution, at least in the early months of his presidency.

"We cannot predict what will happen-in part because Trump has not offered a clear and consistent outline of his specific policy agenda-but it's more likely than not that trade will be an increasing source of competition and discord in the coming months."

 

AUSTRALIA SHOULD NOT ALIGN WITH AMERICA ON LOSING SIDE OF HISTORY

12.00 PM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Dr Jane Golley, Deputy Director of the ANU Australian Centre on China in the World, has said Australia doesn't have to align with America on the 'losing side of history'.

"Trump's victory is a signal of everything that is wrong with America, with its democracy, its economy, its attitude to the rest of the world's people, and its lack of respect for the planet itself. Australia does not have to follow suit.

"Prime Minister Turnbull has already stressed that the 'alliance between Australia and the United States is set in the enduring national interests of both countries, it's in our mutual interest to stand together'.

"But surely now is the time to seriously and openly question the benefits of this alliance, and to adapt to the new reality of the world in which we live.

"China, and Australia's relationship with it, is central to this reality. China's leaders are far from perfect, but they offer (at least) two key policy elements that are diametrically opposed to Trump's: their firm commitment to an open global economy and to tackling catastrophic climate change.

"If Australia chooses to side with America on these issues, in the name of 'enduring national interests', I firmly believe that we will find ourselves on the losing side of history."

 

CLINTON DETACHED FROM VOTER'S REALITY

11.30 AM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Professor Quentin Grafton of the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy argues that Hillary Clinton showed how detached she was from the American public when she slandered the moral character of Trump voters.

"In her own words just two months ago, Clinton described half of Trump's supporters as "deplorables" who are "racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic". But it seems that there were enough Americans who were angry enough with "business as usual" to vote for change, even if this made them deplorable in the eyes of Hillary Clinton and the elites.

"These voters are the Americans who are on low or minimum wages and who do not see a bright future for themselves, or their families. These are the working poor, those little thought about and frequently ignored.

"While many of the better off and more educated are in shock at Trump's victory, many expendables will want, expect and demand something different to business as usual.

"They want a different system and, thus, have gambled on someone who they think will "shake up" the system."

 

ANZUS ALLIANCE FUTURE UNCERTAIN

11.15 AM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Dr Peter Dean, Acting Head of the Strategic Studies Defence Centre at ANU has said in an ABC Radio interview that the future of the ANZUS Alliance is uncertain under a Trump presidency.

"Donald Trump has come through with a rejection of the status quo of American foreign policy that has been very bi-partisan since the end of the Second World War - that is a forward leaning, engaged United States both in Europe, the Middle East and in Asia.

"What we will see under trump, I think, is an alliance but under new terms."

 

US ELECTION A 'BAD DREAM COME TRUE'

10.45 AM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the ANU National Security College says the US election is a bad dream come true for Australia in an opinion piece for the Financial Review.

"The prospect of a Trump presidency is what futures analysts call a black elephant. A strategic shock or so-called black swan combined with the elephant in the room.

"In other words, this is a problem so big, so troubling and so obvious that we have refused to accept it as real - or to prepare for it.

"Trump's sharpest lesson for Australia must surely be about our international security strategy and its critical dependence on the alliance with the United States. The uncomfortable truth is that Australia cannot protect its extensive national interests without America.

"With a Trump win, the Australia-US alliance will survive but sustain real harm. He would demand much more of allies than previous presidents, deliver less in return, take us entirely for granted and have no real grasp of the kind of country we are."

 

AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL SECURITY NEEDS RESILIENCE

9:30 AM THURSDAY 10 NOVEMBER

Professor Rory Medcalf from the ANU National Security College told ABC News Online Australia would have to "weather four bad years" and that the Federal Government would have to consider formulating its own national security strategy that relies more on Australia's own capabilities.

"Australia now has to focus not on panicking but on being more resilient and more capable as a security actor".

 

IT'S NOT OVER YET

3:30PM WEDNESDAY 9 NOVEMBER

Dr Jennifer Hunt of the ANU National Security College says most results are still on track with predictions.

"The results aren't far off the Electoral College predictions, we knew he would win a wide swathe of states in the middle and in the south. What we're seeing now is those states coming in.

"Where states like California, with 55 electoral votes, will take a few more hours due to the time difference, but we can go ahead and add those 55 votes to Clinton's electoral tally.

"Regardless of who wins its going to be a rancorous outcome, Trump has said he loses he will pursue litigation.

"If Hillary wins, she will have a very divided country and possibly a hostile congress."

 

THE FLORIDA SITUATION

11:30AM WEDNESDAY 9 NOVEMBER

Dr Bates Gill, Professor of Asia-Pacific Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre says Florida is the key to the presidency.

"Florida is looking close, if Trump loses its all over. We should know the Florida result by 12noon Australian time."

 

ANU ALUMNI INVOLVEMENT

 

Two ANU alumni might help make history as part of Hillary Clinton's campaign for the US Presidency.

Sariel Taylor Pindo (Bachelor of Policy Studies / Bachelor of Commerce '15) and her friend, Isabella McDougall (Bachelor of International Relations '14), became involved in the campaign since July and are working in the Los Angeles and Las Vegas campaign offices.

"I decided to get involved in Hillary Clinton's campaign a long time ago! In addition to the amazing experience, I especially wanted to be a part of history in the hopeful election of the first female President of the United States."

Read their full story here.

 

A WIN FOR WOMEN

2:30PM TUESDAY 8 NOVEMBER

Associate Professor Fiona Jenkins, Convenor of the ANU Gender Institute, gives her take on what a Hillary Clinton win would mean for women.

"This will of course be hugely momentous - a long overdue achievement for women's empowerment on the formal stage of global politics.

"In U.S. politics however we have to fear an ugly backlash given the high levels of sexism the Trump campaign has brought out and mobilized.

"The struggle ongoing from this campaign will be interesting to watch."

 

US MILITARY BASES IN OKINAWA

1:30PM TUESDAY 8 NOVEMBER

Kerri Ng, PhD Candidate at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, writes in East Asia Forum about what the election means for for the issue of US military bases in Okinawa.

"From an Okinawan perspective, neither candidate is necessarily 'good', with both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump advocating positions that offer little for the prefecture.

"Under a Clinton presidency, the United States and Japan are likely to continue with current basing policies. In a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September, Clinton reassured Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that she was committed to strengthening the alliance.

"On the surface, a Trump presidency appears beneficial to Okinawa. A United States withdrawal from Asia implies a drawing down of its military presence in the prefecture and a reduction of the 'burden' on Okinawa hosting US military bases.

"But it is more likely that Trump's foreign policies would be disastrous for both Japan and Okinawa. Trump's rhetoric about the alliance is remarkably ill-informed. Despite evidence to the contrary, Trump has repeatedly asserted that 'Japan does not pay enough' host-nation support for bases, and indicated that he'd be 'prepared to walk' and leave the country to develop its own nuclear deterrent."

 

AUSTRALIA-US ALLIANCE

12PM TUESDAY 8 NOVEMBER

Professor Rory Medcalf is Head of the ANU National Security College writes in the Adelaide Advertiser on how the election result will challenge Australia's alliance with the US.

"Even with the awful spectacle of current US politics, the alliance is not under existential threat.

"If Trump wins, the Australia-US alliance will survive but sustain real harm. He would expect more yet deliver less. His Administration would do even worse than previous ones in taking Australia for granted, or in failing to understand the complex and changing country we are.

"But a Hillary Clinton win will also mean tough times as the US deals with internal fractures about how it engages with the world.

"So a country with Australia's finite capabilities is going to have to learn to do more with what we have.

"This means identifying clear national security priorities and marshalling our resources comprehensively to support them - the beginnings of a grand strategy."

Professor Medcalf will be giving a speech on Australia's Australia's Cyber and Maritime security at an event in Perth on Thursday 10 November.

 

TRUMP PRESIDENCY IS CAUSE FOR REAL SECURITY CONCERN

9:30AM TUESDAY 8 NOVEMBER

Paul Dibb, Emeritus Professor at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, writes in The Australian on how a Trump Presidency could have serious ramifications for Australia's regional security. 

"In my view, Australia should be concerned, very concerned, about a Trump victory.

"A President Trump may prove to be an isolationist and a destroyer of alliances.

"Canberra needs to be prepared for the sort of unpredictable election ­result that occurred in the Brexit vote in Britain this June.

"If Trump wins, it will be crucial from an Australian perspective to immediately bring our concerns to bear with the new administration."

 

AUSTRALIA-US DIPLOMACY

9AM TUESDAY 8 NOVEMBER

Dr Bates Gill, Professor of Asia-Pacific Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre on how the election result will impact Australia's diplomatic relationships.

"Australians will know and trust the team that Hillary Clinton brings in with her to address global, regional, and US-Australia diplomatic issues. Not so with a Trump presidency.

"The Australian ambassador (Joe Hockey), like ambassadors all over Washington, has struggled to get in touch with those closest to Donald Trump and advising him on issues of relevance to US-Australia relations.

"I would expect a year or more of uncertainty as Australian political and diplomatic leaders get to know a lot of new and previously unknown, but critically important, Trump appointees.

"We should not underestimate this issue - possibilities for miscommunication, misunderstanding and trust."

 

THE ANZUS ALLIANCE

4PM MONDAY 7 NOVEMBER

Associate Professor Peter Dean, Senior Fellow at the ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

"The ANZUS alliance is at a critical juncture in its history.

"The US Presidential race has produced an establishment candidate in Hillary Clinton who could be expected to strengthen United States alliances in the Asia-Pacific versus Donald Trump, the anti-establishment candidate who has threated to either tear down this system or radically reshape it.

"For Australia this has potentially profound consequences. The ANZUS alliance has been the cornerstone of Australian security policy and the US' role in the world underpins the rules based global order under which Australia has prospered."

 

ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY

1PM MONDAY 7 NOVEMBER

ANU defence policy analyst Associate Professor Matthew Sussex, Academic Director of the Australian National University (ANU) National Security College.

"If Donald Trump wins then all bets are off.

"Australia will look to ramp up its security partnership with the Japanese in particular, but will need to go beyond its traditional comfort zone if it is to feel reassured in a region that has become much more tense than even a couple of years ago.

"Trump wants to deliver all the things that Australia would prefer were not delivered in the region.

"He wants to end trade liberalisation and go back to protectionism, he wants to draw down America's alliances worldwide, and he wants the friends of the United States to realise that if they want security, then they have to pay for it."

Associate Professor Sussex said Trump's foreign policies would undermine confidence in the United States, forcing nations such as Singapore, Indonesia and South Korea to build new relationships to ensure their security.

"A Trump victory would harm those relationships because he would say if you want security you have to pay for it," Associate Professor Sussex said.

"Most US allies in Asia will have to think twice about whether they can afford what Trump is charging."