A hundred years ago, the first great era of globalisation collapsed into World War I. This was soon followed by the Great Depression and World War II. But at the end of that global crisis an enlightened generation of policymakers in the US and Britain led the world in creating an open international order. A remarkable period of economic growth then ensued, lasting for sixty years. That second era of global prosperity ended with the global financial crisis of 2008. The initial response by policymakers to this second global crisis was also an enlightened one, but this has ceased to be the case. Many observers link Brexit, the wider European crisis, and the rise of Trump to the failures which these policymakers committed.
In this lecture, Professor Vines, will describe what led us into this position, and will consider possible responses. He will ask first whether there is a viable solution to the crisis in Europe that Brexit has brought into sharp relief. He will then describe how the effects of protectionist policies in the US might be countered, focusing on the crucial role of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership process in Asia. Finally, he will ask what kind of global leadership we might hope and expect that China will provide.
David Vines is an Emeritus Fellow of Balliol College, and a former Professor of Economics, at the University of Oxford. He is also the Director of the Ethics and Economics Programme at the Oxford Martin School, Director of the Political Economy of Financial Markets Programme at St Antony's College, Oxford and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. From 2008 to 2012 he was the Research Director of the European Union's Framework Seven PEGGED Research Program, which analysed Global Economic Governance from a European perspective. Professor Vines received a BA from Melbourne University in 1971, and subsequently an MA and PhD from Cambridge University. From 1985 to 1992 he was Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy at the University of Glasgow. His main research interests are in macroeconomics - including fiscal, monetary and financial policy - and in global economic governance; he is also leading a research programme in Oxford on the restoration of trust in the financial system. His recent books include: Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy (MIT Press, 2014, with Peter Temin); Capital Failure: Rebuilding Trust in the Financial System (Oxford University Press, 2014, edited with Nicholas Morris); The Leaderless Economy: Why the World Economic System Fell Apart and How to Fix It (Princeton University Press, 2013, with Peter Temin); and The IMF and its Critics: Reform of Global Financial Architecture (Cambridge University Press, 2004, edited with Christopher Gilbert).