Iran: An Islamic Government in Crisis

22 July 2009

Professor Amin Saikal

The Islamic government of oil-rich Iran is faced with its worst legitimacy crisis since the Iranian revolution that toppled the Shah's pro-Western monarchy and replaced it with an Islamic regime thirty years ago. While it has the capacity to survive the crisis, it may find itself weakened to the extent that it may not be able to cope effectively with mounting domestic problems and foreign policy pressures. Not only is the Iranian population bitterly polarised for and against it, but a serious split has also developed within the ruling clerical elite. If the Iranian leadership fails to accommodate a liberalist Islamist path of reform and inclusion, it could seriously imperil the survival of the Islamic regime in the long run.

This lecture sought to discuss the roots of the political upheaval confronting the Iranian government and to assess its future direction.

Broad Topics: Arts and Social Sciences

Sub-topics: Philosophy & Religion, Policy & Political Science

Areas: ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences

Professor Saikal was a Visiting Fellow at Princeton University, Cambridge University and the Institute of Development Studies (University of Sussex), as well as a Rockefeller Foundation Fellow in International Relations (1983-1988).  In April 2006, he was appointed Member of the Order of Australia (AM) for service to the international community and to education, and as an author and adviser.  He is the author of numerous works on the Middle East, Central Asia, and Russia, including The Rise and Fall of the Shah: Iran - From Autocracy to Religious Rule, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009); Modern Afghanistan: A History of Struggle and Survival: (London, I.B. Tauris, 2004);  Islam and the West: Conflict or Co-operation? (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003); co-editor, Democratization in the Middle East: Experiences, Struggles, Challenges (New York: United Nations University Press, 2003); co-editor, Islamic Perspectives on the New Millennium, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2004.  Professor Saikal has also published numerous articles in international journals, as well as many feature articles in major international newspapers, including the International Herald Tribune and The New York Times. . He is also a frequent commentator on radio and television.