Previous estimates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander fertility, based on the 1986 Census and using comparisons with earlier censuses, found a substantial downward trend in Indigenous fertility from the 1950s to the early 1980s. The decline was from a high total fertility rate of about six children per woman in the 1950s to the early 1970s period, after which fertility fell steeply to about three children per woman in the first half on the 1980s. (Total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would be expected to bear by the end of her reproductive years.)

One of the more consistent findings of census-based analysis is that nationally, Indigenous Australians change their place of usual residence more often than the non-Indigenous population. Between 2001 and 2006, 46.5 per cent of the Indigenous population changed their place of usual residence, compared to 43.1 per cent for the non-Indigenous population. Population movement can have significant impacts on the ability of all levels of government to design forward-looking policy at a local level that takes into account the share of the population that identifies as being Indigenous.

Policy development in Indigenous affairs often proceeds with dated estimates of population and with little understanding of the likely impact of changing demographic parameters on future Indigenous population size and composition. To the extent that policy itself can influence demographic outcomes, this represents a significant deficiency in current planning methodology. To stimulate a dialogue around such issues, this paper models the national and regional population impacts of a continuation of existing mortality and fertility regimes compared to a situation where these converge.

Local area population counts and estimates are crucial inputs into policy planning and processes. However, population mobility in general, as well as large numbers of visitors to particular areas, place additional demands on resources and those providing essential services. The literature identifies a pressing need for standardised quantitative measures of the volume, frequency and flows of Indigenous temporary mobility and comparable spatial scales.